Saturday, November 11, 2023

Are EV's worth it?

Earlier this year I started thinking about getting a car with better acceleration. It can be stressful trying to merge onto an interstate when your car has no get up and go. Having a car without good acceleration is frustrating sometimes.

I discovered that EV's (particularly Teslas) have really good acceleration. This sent me down a rabbit hole learning about EV's and the EV market. Now I want to express an opinion based on what I've learned.

One of the major appeals of EV's is that they don't spit out pollutants or carbon dioxide. They're environmentally "clean." While that is true, it is offset by the fact that you have to charge them. That electricity has to come from somewhere. Most of the power in the electrical grid comes from burning fossil fuels. Due to the second law of thermodynamics, the more energy conversions you have between the source and the use, the less efficiency you're going to have. If you have to convert fuel to heat, then to mechanical energy in a turbine, then electrical energy in a generator, then send it out in the electrical distribution system, raising and lowering voltages through transformers, then store it as chemical energy in your battery, then convert it into mechanical energy in the car's motor, you're losing a lot more efficiency than if you're just burning fuel in your engine, turning it to mechanical energy, and making your car go. So probably you're burning more fossil fuels using an electric car than you are a gas powered car.

Also, it requires a lot of heavy machinery to mine the lithium, cobalt, and other minerals required to make those batteries, and that also burns fossil fuels. And I'm not sure how environmentally friendly those batteries are and whether disposing of them will be an issue in the future.

Another issue with EV's is that they don't have the range of gas powered cars. I think this is a problem that can be fixed as battery technology improves. Right now, though, it causes what people are calling "range anxiety."

Infrastructure is also a big problem, but this is only a temporary inconvenience that can be fixed with time. There weren't gas stations everywhere when gas powered cars were invented either. At the time, though, range anxiety is a consequence of both the low range of EV's and the paucity of charging stations, especially in rural areas.

It takes longer to charge a car than it does to fill your car with gas. That's going to be a real pain for people who are driving long distances. I think improvements can be made, but it's always going to be an issue. Maybe it'll just be something we adjust to.

Most people who own EV's will probably charge their car over night at home. That won't work for people who live in apartments, though. Europe wants to ban gas powered cars altogether. If they do, apartments are going to have to supply their parking lots with charging stations. A lot of people in the U.S. want to ban gas powered cars, too. That will either create a huge headache for people who live in apartments, or it will cause a headache for people who build apartments. Rents will have to go up if they're going to be forced to provide charging stations.

Most people buy used cars. I've never bought a new car. EV's have a major disadvantage when it comes to used cars, though. As the battery ages, the range of the car is diminished. When the battery wears out, the car becomes totaled because it costs more to replace the battery than the car is worth. Nobody is going to want to buy used EV's because the battery will already have diminished capacity. You can't keep a used EV running indefinitely just by taking really good care of it like you can with a gas powered car. Used gas powered cars don't lose range as they get older either. They just have more maintenance issues.

I question whether EV's will be good to have in snowstorms. If you're stuck somewhere because of a blizzard, you're probably better off being stuck in a gas powered car. At least then you can keep it running and stay warm. I'm not sure how long an EV would last in those conditions. I also don't know how much running the air conditioner or heater affects range. I've heard the batteries don't work as well when it's really cold or really hot. Heat is a bigger issue than cold for me personally, since I'm from Texas, but I'm just thinking about the rest of the world, especially our neighbors to the north.

Running out of gas in the middle of nowhere is an issue, but it's a bigger issue with an EV. With an EV, you're more likely to run out of charge because charging stations are fewer and farther between, and you don't get as much range anyway. With a gas car, somebody can bring you a gallon or two of gas so you can get to the next gas station. With an electric car, somebody will have to come along with a way to charge your battery. I don't know if anything like that even exists yet. You'd probably just have to get your car towed.

The batteries used in EV's require lithium, which has to be mined. They also use cobalt and other materials that have to be mined. These materials aren't everywhere, which means there has to be a lot of cooperation between different countries to make the EV world work. If we all go EV-only, this could create problems. Political disputes could make it easier for some countries to impose sanctions on other countries. From what I understand the U.S. has a lot of its own lithium, but I think most of the cobalt comes from the Republic of Congo. I don't know how abundant the materials necessary to make batteries are. If batteries are to improve, I imagine we might use materials we're not necessarily using now, which makes the future somewhat unpredictable. A lot of us Americans don't mind importing goods from other countries, but we're uneasy about being dependent on other countries, like we are to a large extent on oil and gas. We don't have to be dependent on other countries for oil and gas. We just tend to prefer dependence to drilling and refining in our own country. But if we go all electric, we may have to be dependent on other countries in case we don't have all the raw materials to make the batteries we're going to need.

As far as I know, Tesla is the only company that has been able to make EV's profitable. With them lowering their prices all the time, it makes it very hard for anybody else to compete. Companies like Rivian may make good EV's, but if they can't turn a profit, they're going to go under. Telsa may become a monopoly. That's not so bad if you're an investor. Actually, I think there's an EV company in China that may be profitable. I'm not sure.

There are some advantages to EV's, though. Charging your car is probably less expensive than buying gas. If you just use your car to drive around town, and you can charge it at home while you sleep, you can avoiding going to gas stations and charging stations altogether. Also, there's the good acceleration. They also don't have as many moving parts, so the maintenance isn't going to be as frequent or costly, at least until the battery wears out. On the other hand, I've heard it can sometimes be a nightmare trying to get your EV serviced by Tesla, and normal auto mechanics can't help you.

I think EV's probably are going to be our future in spite of all these drawbacks. I suspect we'll just adjust. I mean they're still better than a horse and buggy. I'm going to keep driving gas powered cars, though, because at the moment, I don't think EV's are worth it. That is unless you live in a city, don't travel long distances, own a house, and maybe a second car that runs on gas. Then it might be worth it.

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